变盘了？全面反弹？比特币即将突破8000刀，连eos也不惧利空，突破了2.8刀！

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一切正在转向中。

我们不得不说，市场有分歧才有机会，分歧越大，机会才多。

很多人在等着比特币回调，或者是二次探底。

但是市场似乎是并没有显示有回调了，反而是有很多突破了，比特币即将突破8000刀，连eos在b1明年推出voice的情况下也突破了2.8刀，最近2.8刀是eos的一个门槛。

在2020年首届421丰水节上吴忌寒说3.12是一个非常坚实的底部，比特币不会有二次探底。在他看来，3.12当时很多掌握现金的人抄底了，这新一轮牛市的起点，可以说已经奠定。他认为在那种暴跌的行情当中去抄底的人手头一直以来抵抗住诱惑持有现金，在下跌的时候迎来抄底，这些用现金抄底的人耐心是非常的强，这些筹码稳定的程度远远强过用杠杆去持有投寸的投资人。现在整个市场杠杆程度已经非常之低了，大家还是处在谨慎的状态之中，未来整个市场加杠杆驱动牛市进一步上涨还有充足的空间。3.12暴跌应该对风险做了非常充分的释放。

然后他谈到，即将迎来的丰水期，可以说丰水期是对矿工一年一度至关重要的掘金战，在他看来丰期是一个牛市的很重要的驱动因素。

紧接着据报道四川雅安市人民政府近期正式出台《关于建设水电消纳示范区支持区块链产业发展的实施意见》，这或是18年以来首次有地方政府明确出台文件支持丰水期挖矿，非常罕见，更有消息称四川更多地区或陆续开放。这份实施意见文件指出，要充分发挥我市水电资源优势，抢抓区块链产业发展重大战略机遇，推动区块链技术和产业健康有序发展，促进水电资源高质量消纳，培育我市经济发展新的增长点。文件称，要积极引进区块链龙头企业，按照“交易电价+输配电价+政府性基金及附加”方式确定用户电价。但也要求用电企业投资500万元以上；具有IDC资质，从事区块链研发和相关技术创新活动，具备相应相关资质条件或证明，与供电公司签订正式《供用电合同》和《并网调度协议》。

事实上早在19年11月，写的国家发改委发布《产业结构调整指导目录（2019 年本，征求意见稿）》的最新版本中，处于淘汰产业的虚拟货币挖矿被删除了。

所有的这些都是巧合？更巧合的是比特币即将减半，很多人认为比特币的暴涨暴跌的周期性就是建立在减半行情的预期之上的。按照历史的经验，比特币减半都是有行情的。

过去以往比特币从前减半前熊市的底部到后减半牛市的顶部大约上涨了100倍。

什么叫比特币的减半？每10分钟挖出的比特币数量每四年减少一半，这被称为比特币减半。
 

下一次比特币减半是2020年5月进行，届时每10分钟12.5比特币区块奖励将减半到6.25比特币。 比特币最大供应上限是2100万，区块奖励减半意味着所有比特币进入流通所需的时间更长。但也意味着挖矿产出新比特币将越来越少，并且由于其供应有限，比特币将继续变得越来越稀缺，稀缺性将提升价值。 

首次比特币减半于2012年11月底进行。 比特币大约费时513天，才从2.01美元底部反弹至市场周期最高点270.94美元以上，涨幅达13,000％。

第二次比特币减半在2016年7月初进行。 比特币费时1068天才从164.01美元的底部反弹到20,074美元，上涨幅度达12,000％。 

事实上，从过往来看，比特币每次都达到了新的历史新高。 

就eos而言，按照以往，只有b1或者bm有利空的言论，eos大概率是跌的，虽然b1释放的利好对eos上涨没有一点作用，但是利空都是很准的。

据Voice的首席执行官萨拉赫•扎拉蒂莫在4月25日的采访中，谈到了Voice服务目前的发展状况和发展方向，并透露完整版的Voice或将于2021年发布。这个消息吓坏了投资者，尤其是中国的投资者。

采访中Salah暗示了在今年夏天（6月-8月）Voice将会有一个大更新的测试版推出，更新版本将在用户界面和用户体验方面有所改善，同时会简化并方便用户进行注册，而无需提供政府ID。Salah补充说,还有很多功能有待调整。不过她还表示，我们计划进行一年的测试，所以我们应用程序的完整版本要到明年第一季度才会发布。

上个月，Voice收到了Block.one1.5亿美元的投资，据称这笔资金将用于Voice的独立运营。

除了b1方面，EOSCanada宣布终止主网BP节点业务以专注开发dfuse，为了专注于dfuse开源区块链数据堆栈的开发，EOSCanad决定了终止EOS主网上的BP节点业务。

事实上，eos的利空从来没有断过，比如eos不够去中心化，所以不是区块链，又比如eos被中国庄家控制了，当然更大的利空是不及预期，eos上的dApp没有什么变得大规模应用了，以吸引更多的用户进入区块链。

eos从设计思想上，依然沿着实现智能合约和分布式应用的想法来设计的，并没有对行业的技术进展或者设计思想带来本质的变化，eos牛逼的地方是通过Dpos机制来缩减了记账节点的数量来取得了更好的性能，从而满足了部分开发者的需求，而且大多还都是菠菜的开发者，而以太坊曾经最火的游戏大概就是fomo3d了，和以太猫了，大家都懂得这两个游戏的本质，以太坊上养猫，卡的不行，eos上就行吗？事后来看是不行的。

这样说来，目前针对eos的恐惧不是eos本身，其实是eos的这些利空一直挥之不去，尤其是b1和bm一直让市场捉摸不透。

那你会问，为什么以前的b1释放利空eos会下跌，而这次没有呢？

我们不得承认市场是复杂的，好多总让我们给出一个直接的因素，为什么上涨或是下跌。市场不像牛顿定律那样方便，对于给定的一个M，作用一个力F，就可以得出一个加速度a，市场不是这样的，市场没有这么明确。利好，利空在牛市或者是熊市也各有不同的解释。

好消息在牛市叫做利好的开始，如果有好消息，买，于是涨，甚至大涨。

好消息在熊市叫做利好不是利好，如果有好消息，上涨即出货，因为更大的下跌等着你呢。

坏消息，在牛市叫做利空出尽，如果是坏消息的话，以后没有利空了，买，于是涨。

在熊市，没有最坏，只有更坏，卖，卖，还是卖，于是大盘就是跌，只有更惨没有最惨。

如果你懂得利好利空在熊市和牛市是有不同的分析逻辑，你会不会简单的想，为什么利空了还没有跌。

当然这样的市场做空就更要小心了。4月25日九重猫在听说接下来，亏钱的是做空的了？几点异常显示做空的要小心了提醒大家做要小心。

有关eos，九重猫有一个什么时候eos拉到150的群了，这个群是长期跟踪eos价格的，无论是持有eos的，还是关心eos的，都可以加入，扫不了码的，可以加九重猫vx：dxsd52j然后九重猫邀请您进群了。