番外篇：听说你想全职区块链？

2020年，

很多人的命运注定会改变。

对于职场遇到困境的人们来说，

已经听了几年币圈暴富故事了，

跳进区块链，可以逆天改命吗？

眼前两条路：

要么回老家，要么搏一把。

或者像你这样，

过着平静而富足的生活，

偶尔也会被神奇的币圈所吸引，

想象自己过着另一种更刺激的生活，

半夜辗转反侧，看着身旁熟睡的她，

你忍不住想对她说：

阿姨，我不想和你在一起了。

被币安收入囊中的coinmarketcap，今年做了不少有意思的博客内容，而且还在页面上强推，有点招徕新人的意思。比如最近推出的Crypto Titans系列访谈，采访了很多业界老炮，几乎对所有人都提了一个问题：

对想入行区块链/加密货币的新人，

你有什么想对他们说的？

我把他们对这个问题的回答都看了一遍，还挺有意思的，在这里我重新编辑一下，分享给大家。我没有精力和能力做全文翻译，就把我感兴趣的点简单翻译提炼一下，有的地方也添加了我的一些想法。大家一起看看，说得在不在理。

这个系列的原文链接在这里：

https://blog.coinmarketcap.com/tag/crypto-titans/

请注意，我这里并不是原文的翻译，如果需要理解被访者的本意，请阅读原文，所以我把关键部分的英文原文还是保留下来了，各位各取所需。

The best investment you can make is in yourself. Get intimate with the technology. Start contributing to projects that interest you.

Then, when crypto inevitably goes mainstream, you'll be in high demand for the experience and knowledge that you've accumulated. You should be skeptical of anything promising to make you a quick fortune.

第一位是CMC的创始人Brandon Chez，这位老板挺神秘的，从来不露脸，他的回答是：

• 多投资自己
• 多熟悉技术
• 会来事，多向看好的项目做贡献
• 苟住，等行业走向主流，大家就需要你了
• 暴富什么的，别上当

第三条说得挺对的，这个行业的项目大都属于草创阶段，你主动去帮点什么忙，别人会一直记着你的。像我以前接触到的美团、小米的几位早期员工，工号50以前的，就是还没毕业就主动和这些公司套磁，积极、热情加上合格的能力，给老板和同事留下好印象，后来自然就蒸蒸日上坐上了更重要的位置。这么做，好处是不用掏钱，花时间出力气就行，坏处是，你碰到的老板得是明白人，这个事前是不好判断的。

My advice would be: do both.

For those who are looking to invest in crypto: 

Do your own research before you make any investment decisions — don't simply follow others' investment advice.

Beware of the risks — crypto is a highly volatile asset class and it is common to bear greater investment losses.

For those who are seeking a career in crypto: 

Compared with other industries, the crypto industry has more growth, disruption and uncertainty. So be ready for the challenges and risks.  

赵总的意见比较老生常谈，但真做到的也不多，尤其第二条：

• 既要买币，也要在这个行业找份工作
• 自己研究自己的，不要听别人的
• 做好心理准备，亏的比预想的要多
• 和其它行业相比，这个行业有更多的成长和挑战，做好准备

It is a folly to be too early. I was a little too early in 2003 with a coin. You don't want to be researching the colonization of Pluto, it's too far fetched. We're not there yet, but we are right squarely dead on and center with crypto.

......

My big, big advice to people is do not see this as a get rich quick scheme. Do not turn into a trader. Do not get consumed by the financial aspect of things, where you sell tokens or you tell people to buy tokens.

......

A business of that kind, you’re fanning not the use, not the positive societal outcomes, not the positive productivity increases that really bring value to our lives. Instead, you’re trying to take money from Alice to give to Bob. That’s just the zero sum game. There is absolutely no value to be had.

康奈尔大学的教授Emin Gün Sirer，2003年就在研究POW的币，还创办了区块链项目Ava Labs，而且是网红

• 人类真正面对的大问题其实不多，面要解决经济和商业上的『大问题』，区块链正是解决当今『大问题』的一个工具，要有信心
• 做太早了不行，不要像我2003年就在研究一个币，现在研究加密货币刚刚好
• 不要想着做交易暴富
• 没有用途和社会价值的项目，是个零和游戏

数字货币投资不全是『零和游戏』，不能一棍子打死，就像教授说的，要看它如何使用，对社会有什么意义。它可以是正和游戏，还可以是负和游戏。

My recommendation to anyone new to the crypto world is to experience it first hand. Don't just store your coins in exchanges like with stock brokers. Use the non-custodial wallets, properly keep the passphrases and learn the principles of brain wallets.

And begin to take some cryptos for jobs or favors! This is truly the new experience with the money of the virtual worlds, with freedom and privacy. Learn risk management, practice self-responsibility and self-accountability.

又是一位不露脸的，Sunny King是Peercoin, Primecoin和V SYSTEMS这些项目的创办者，也是POS共识机制的发明人。他就强调风险：

• 要亲身参与这个游戏，不要依靠交易所，学着记住私钥
• 学会管理风险，对自己负责，一切靠自己。

The advice I would give is, do it. Enter the industry

Cambridge University did a report of the industry in 2017, and they estimated something like 1,500 people worked full-time in a crypto.

It's tiny. It was tiny then, it's a little bit bigger now. To provide context, Yelp has around 6,000 employees — Yelp is multiple times the size of crypto.

Particularly for people who are early in their careers or are looking for a lot of opportunity, the unique feature that crypto offers is that there's almost nobody who has more experience than you, because there are very few people who've been working in crypto.

......

Over time, more and more people built that skill set, but there was this period where it was so new that there was nobody who had a decade of experience. There was almost nobody who had five years of experience, there were very few people who had two years of experience. I think that kind of opportunity exists in crypto today.

For somebody who's interested in crypto, I think it's a fantastic time to join the space.

Hunter Horsley是Bitwise的CEO，Bitwise去年的报告很刚，用数据推断很多交易所在刷量，他给出的建议是尽早加入：

• 根据剑桥大学2017年的一项统计，全职在加密货币行业的人数在1500左右，现在人数应该多些了，但是对比一下，Yelp一家互联网公司就有6000人，潜力巨大。
• 对于刚开始工作的或者想寻找更大集会的人来说，这个行业人数太少了，几乎没有人比你更有经验，你可以把你以前的积累带到这个新行业，过个一两年，你的经验组合将是独特而稀缺的。
• 因为iPhone和苹果生态的壮大，用于开发苹果系统应用的Objective-C语言变得越来越吃香，最火热的时候，就算只有两年的Objective-C开发经验，依旧可以获得很高的报酬。
• 这个行业极少有人有十年经验、五年经验，如果你对加密货币行业感兴趣，现在是加入的好时候。

这个行业一直在变化，一直有新的机会，就算是行业内有很多年经验的，由于这个行业变化是如此之快，经验不见得有很高的议价能力，相反需要的是如何契合行业的需求。来得早不一定就高枕无忧。

如果是个大趋势，相当长一段时间都不算晚。从互联网的历史来看，2000加入互联网不晚，2005年不晚，2010年依旧不晚，2015年踩准了也不算晚。

Objective-C的故事很有借鉴意义，这里因篇幅原因，没有贴出原文，详见：

https://blog.coinmarketcap.com/2020/03/20/bitwises-ceo-on-the-principles-for-deciding-whether-to-enter-crypto/

Mining has a very long supply chain, filled with uncertainties. Whether it is the stability of the mining, or the stability of the ore machine operation and maintenance, you will not be able to predict outcomes with 100% certainty.

Secondly, the current stage of mining is a call option, there may be relatively large fluctuations in prices and premiums, and one should have a good process to deal with the risk.

What to ignore：

The legend that mining is a highly profitable industry, especially during price surges, should be ignored.

After the halving, mining will enter a period of a reduction of supernormal profits. If the static breakeven period is 3-4 months, you should be looking at the dynamic breakeven period, as this is where the risk is highest. With price fluctuations and a reduction in value of mining machines for resale, it could be hard for people to break even on their investment.

神鱼的回答集中在矿业，相当于回答了『要不要加入挖矿业』这个问题：

• 挖矿产业链条很长，有很多不可控、不确定性
• 现在挖矿相当于一个看涨期权，价格波动大，风险也大
• 减半之后，矿业的暴利阶段将结束，考虑到价格波动和矿机折旧，赚钱很难。

感觉神鱼是在劝退，现在的矿业真有那么惨吗？请读者自行判断吧。

The best advice I can give is stay humble and learn the space for a little bit.

I don't know if I consider myself an OG Bitcoiner, but I've been in the space more than half of its life. The space is about eleven years old in total, and I've been here six years. 

People joining the space, three to six months — just stay quiet and listen and learn, because it takes a good year and a half to two years to really understand why it's only going to be Bitcoin. Bitcoin can change the world. 

And no matter who, no matter when someone got into the space, we were always late. I wish I had bought Bitcoin six months ago. You got in when you got in and you can still do well, but it's only going to be Bitcoin. Everything else is just some guy printing money in his own database and it will not succeed.

Tone Vays是个交易员，在Youtube上很火，属于比特神教：

• 刚入行的人，少说话，多看多学，要花个一两年才真正懂得，为什么比特币才是终极选择
• 无论是谁，总回觉得来晚了
• 就算后悔应该早点买比特币，但现在买还是可以
• 除了比特币，其它的币都是忽悠

他的意见我只是贴上来，我不发表看法。

I'll say this: the crypto industry is very willing — especially when it comes to M&As — things like that are able to happen a lot more with handshakes and meetings and walking through things and having conversations.

Literally, you can message the CEO of a company that you're using on Twitter and be like, dude, what the hell is going on? Why is it not working right now? Obviously, that's changed. You can't do that with companies like Coinbase anymore, you used to be able to. 

You used to be able to email Brian's [Armstrong] Gmail and say, “Brian, what the f***? Why is my Coinbase bitcoin not showing up? I just paid $50 a bitcoin and now it's at $75. What's going on?”

You can't do that anymore. But at the same time, you still can to an extent. That's one of our biggest strengths. 

Charlie Shrem是元老中的元老，身为一个美国DS，比特币改变了他的命运，但他却早早因为比特币洗钱而入狱，出狱之后还是活跃在币圈：

• 这个行业很开放、很有活力，老板们很好打交道。你用的产品有问题，在推特上直接@这个产品的老板，老板会直接回复你。虽然现在像coinbase那样的不见得如此了，但是大多数人一般情况下还是会理你的。

放在国内也是一样的，你正儿八经有问题想问一个项目的老板，只要不是超级大咖，都会回复你的，你和行业前沿如此之近。这是别的行业无法实现的。

额外八卦几句，据他自己在推特上说的，他出狱之后，大部分钱都去买了几套房子，安心收租，只有很少一部分钱拿来炒币。

Please educate yourself, number one, and do your own research.

Number two, there is a lot of risk involved in cryptocurrency. There is technology risk in using the platforms, in holding these assets, custodying them yourself. There is the risk that you could lose your private key and forever lose access to your digital assets. There's a market risk. These exchanges — again, some of them are regulated, some of them are more resilient — but a lot of the newer platforms or even some older platforms have had hacks that had issues with securities.

Don't go on f****** Twitter and follow some crypto trader handle and try to do what that person is doing: it is not going to work for you because every person's risk tolerance is very different. 

Meltem Demirors是Coinshares的首席战略官，她强调的和前面几位差不多：

• 一定要自己做研究，替自己的投资负责
• 不要梭哈，注意丟币、盗币、平台跑路的风险
• 不是追大V跟单，每个人抗风险能力不同

分享就到这里，

有的读者可能会想了，

那是因为那些年大行情好，

他们明明是『坐电梯』上来的，

为什么要看他们分享

『我是如何从一楼到十楼』的经验。

他们有坐牢的，有卖房梭哈的，

有老早就入行一直没挣到大钱的，

我把每个人的照片都贴出来，就是这个原因，

越是面容安详的人，背后的故事越多。

不要忽视过来人的经验。

题图来自美剧『权力的游戏』

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多余的台词

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Chaos isn't a pit. Chaos is a ladder.

混乱不是深渊，混乱是阶梯

Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again.

很多人想往上爬，却失败了，且永无机会再试

The fall breaks them.

失败催毁了他们

And some are given a chance to climb, but they refuse.

有人本有机会往上爬，但他们拒绝了

They cling to the realm or the gods or love.

他们困于王权，诸神或爱情

Illusions.

这都是幻象

Only the ladder is real.

只有阶梯是真实的

The climb is all there is.

爬上去才是一切