大有大有，该有的都有，我是你们的好朋友王大有。
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闲白：2点一直到接近五点，我看了几次币乎都在维护，五点多终于能成功进来了，那就不担心早上不能按时发文了。今天早上主要聊的话题就两个，1 公信宝CEO黄敏强出来了以及我的看法2 昨晚币乎发生了显示BUG，从我的脑洞大开来看各人对不同观点的态度。
下面放上今日火币持仓图开始正文。
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前几天我写了币圈大败局系列国产公链公信宝之困这篇文章原文点这里。
通过阅读评论，让我发现币乎里还是有很多公信宝的铁杆粉丝，他们期待着公信宝能走出困境，体谅着公信宝的不易，如果不是水军，那我对公信宝的社群运营和共识这块要高看一眼。
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在看评论时，就有评论区的读者问我，老黄到底出来没，这是我当时的答案。
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昨天下午，公信宝通过公开渠道CEO黄敏强的朋友圈，正式宣布了这个消息。GXC应声大涨百分之16。
现在的公信宝能不能买？
大有的看法：现在的价格已经涨过一轮不建议买，原因有二，原因一上文提到过我曾受到小道消息老黄出来了，在通过公开渠道发声的时间前，消息渠道快的人可能在黄办手续出来的时间就已经在建仓公信宝了，公信宝的价格已经被抬高。
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第二个原因，如我大败局系列中所写，公信宝还有隐藏的雷没爆，这个雷我认为就是模式币LUCY，一个只涨不跌，从5毛不回头涨到6块，总量十亿，市值比母币公信宝（LUCY基于公信链）还高的币。如果LUCY真的暴雷，必将波及布洛克城和公信宝。
理性的看待公信宝
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不管是我刚才提的暂时不建议买还是将公信宝写入大败局系列，我对公信宝还是有一份敬意，可能于我研究它时间较长持有时间长有关，而且当初母体公司被查封，团队能留下继续工作，在布洛克城服务器被停打不开的时间里，团队仍然通过渠道找CEO黄敏强要了账户私钥，把布洛克城的币定盈等理财项目的本金部分还给了投资者，而没有赖账。这点对比其他项目，也值得称赞。
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公信宝的路径切入点选的很好，可信计算，数字公民身份，数据交易。但还是币圈大败局系列文中的观点，慢就是快，快就是慢，公链项目的发展是长跑，资金盘项目和菠菜类DAPP不是助燃剂，而是致命毒药，公信宝能注意到这个问题就有的救。它与波场不同，公信宝主体完全在国内，且布洛克城的服务器和主体用户都在国内。
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昨晚八点后，币乎出了BUG，很多作者账面收益显示收到影响。因为葛洪雷，牛盾，风火轮区块链等作者我都点了他们的赞，所以记得最开始他们的收益是比较高的。
到了九点多，画风变成这样，你们品品。注意下几张图的账面收益和时间。
注意到这个问题，联想到我之前对币乎风控机制的一些猜测和实验。我分别找了三个人谈这件事，其中给我印象深刻的是葛洪雷雷神。
我对币乎风控机制的猜测和实验：每个平台、机构都会有自己的风控系统，排除不稳定因素是它的工作。对于币乎呢？最近严打的买赞卖赞行为和好文算法扶持新作者有什么关联？我在之前一篇文里已经谈过，现在在整理一次观点并推测风控机制。
如何打击买卖赞行为？
降低买赞者好处：以案例为例。好文算法前，我买了赞，权重因子大于有效阅读因子很多，开始买的两亿权重将我推到热门前10，此时两亿权重使我账面收益为1000(假定数据)，跟风赞权重两亿。最后我账面收益可能就是2100（两亿+两亿+阅读收益）。
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好文算法后：，有效阅读因子大于权重因子，我买了赞，一样两亿权重，此时两亿权重使我账面收益为1000（假定数据）推到热门前十。因为我文章写得水，没人看，跟风赞是直接拉下来点赞的，依然是两亿跟风赞权重。最后我账面收益显示可能是1000（两亿+两亿+阅读）这里账面收益显示反而大幅降低的原因是，无有效阅读，这时四亿的权重代表的有效阅读需求量是某个数值，被跟风赞点完后，账面显示会下降，如果后续达到那个有效阅读则涨回四亿权重的应得账面收益。如果没有满足，则降低账面收益。更多的跟风赞反而降低权重。这就是有些作者没上热门，赞数也不多，反而收益很高的原因，没有被跟风赞拉低。
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如果作者觉得买赞得不偿失，收益上亏本，效果上亏本就不会买赞，买卖赞市场就会变差。
我的推测中如何识别哪个账户卖赞
建立模型：我再此打的比方是这样一个模型。一位买赞或者刷评论的作者，粉丝量极少。他发文的数分钟后，有大量权重（这段划重点）不是本身关注他，而是通过搜索币乎名进来，找到他文章，阅读，点赞评论。这本身是一件不合逻辑的行为，并非热门往下拉翻到，也不是之前就知道这个作者或者通过链接，而是直接搜索账户名，对吗？所以这群点赞者可以做初步标记，此时为嫌疑状态。
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二次筛选：被标记嫌疑状态的账户，大量重复以上行为，对多个未关注的作者文章，通过直接搜名字，点赞，且这些文章符合短时间集中大量被点赞或评论，其他时间反响又平平的情况。那么可以确定卖赞账号。
我的脑洞大开
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昨晚发生了BUG事件后，我脑洞大开，想会不会卖赞账号被官方标记然后成为黑号了？黑号这个概念玩过京东的应该都知道，领不了大额优惠券，享受不到福利。是否因为卖赞市场不好，这些被标记的账号为了不浪费能量赞，主动给其他作者点赞，刚好撞枪口上了，还使被点赞的几个作者，以十倍计的降低收益。
其他人的看法：
A君：没听懂前因后果，对前面买赞卖赞如何发现如何确立卖赞者的逻辑没太明白，所以说“大有，你这个逻辑说服不了我，哈哈。”
B君：听明白了，但B君较有主见。认为是BUG。
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雷神：听明白了，也明白我的脑洞大开只是推测。没否定也没排除这一种可能性。
今天当然被证实，昨晚最后的脑洞，就是关于官方惩罚黑号，倒扣收益这事，我的猜测被证伪了。
但大有对此还是深有感触
打个比方吧，大多数人特别是一群人聚在一起的时候，容易犯糊涂，被带动节奏，甚至带动思想。这种行为叫集体无意识。币乎作者群里最近出现了集体无意识行为
如此类：单纯认为币乎对老作者持打压，任何人点赞新作者收益明显高过点赞老作者。（背后的原因通过上文我的解释其实能理解是为什么？新作者不在热门之上，跟风赞较少，真实阅读较多，账面显示的阅读收益更多，那么点他的文章，你的权重在总权重中占得比重就大）所以形成片面的观点，抢赞就抢赞新作者。
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大有的感触：任何事，不假定立场，不排除任何一种可能性。以我的经验。这对于投资和做一个项目其实太重要了，雷神确实有一定投资经验和自己的一套方法论。我对雷神的了解比起只读他文章又多了一层。
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不知道这篇文章你看完有什么感想呢？请在评论区发出你的宝贵声音，得到赞同最多（已点赞数为准，我自己的评论不算）的五名读者，分别会在文章发出的第二天（以4月1日0:00为准）得到大有发放的200KEY鼓励基金，一共1000KEY。前一天的获奖读者我会在这篇文章的评论置顶区艾特出来，被艾特的用户在我置顶的评论中发出自己的MYKEY钱包地址即可。
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------我是王大有，目前每日双更，早7点05分为一更，晚8点10分二更。
聊我想聊的，说你想听的。
VX:wangminghao6，期待认识每一个你。
（最近想建个社群，愿意参与的就加我微信吧，发广告的就别来了。）
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温馨提示：★★★天上真会掉馅饼！天道酬勤，都是机会！不错过每个空投糖果！真假难以辨认，尽量0撸！
